With Uche Nnadozie
President Muhammadu Buhari has presented his 2020 appropriation estimates. It is all of N10.33 trillion. The highest on face value so far. I have heard people say it is such a big deal, but I have to forgive them because they do not understand what we are dealing with. That sum is just about $27 billion if the exchange rate is N360 per dollar. To all intents and purposes this is a very poor budget. Let me clear up a few things please. I am not an economist, not an accountant, not a finance professional or anything that has to do with figures or mathematics. I am just a Nigerian and a journalist. So don’t take my word to mean that I am an expert or a chartered something. I am not.
However we all see the dysfunctions in our country. At least in secondary school most people were taught basic economics. The most popular being demand and supply. That is in essence what economics is all about. So if we see things from that purview we will better understand what we are dealing with. Nigerian economy is the biggest in Africa by Gross Domestic Product, GDP. It hovers between $400 to $500 billion. This is the total of all economic activities in the country, and is mostly derived from the size of our population. At about 200 million people and over 60 percent of that being young people, our GDP should be at least double of what we currently do.
This simply means that each of us should be doing double of what we are currently outputting. In simple terms, we are all underperforming. Our supply of money to run the economy is very poor compared to the demands of a better life. But we can no longer continue like this. I agree with my friend Charles Jaja-Sackey that our national budget should be something around N30 trillion in Nigeria of 2019. I go a step further. I think we should be doing N40 trillion. I also think that by 2021 we should be doing N60 trillion. Listen! There is no way this country will develop if we continue this miserly budgeting figure. There is no way we will as a country cure endemic poverty in this land if we continue with this kobo-kobo budgets. Comparing our estimates with other jurisdictions bring home our ugly situation. Before then, let’s look at some of our realities.
The estimate for works and housing is N200 billion and some fractions. That ministry has over 500 projects currently at different levels of work. Some no work at all. Now, the second Niger Bridge alone costs more than N200 billion. The Lagos-Ibadan expressway is more than N200 billion. The Abuja-Kaduna-Kano highway is more than 400 billion. The Port Harcourt-Bonny Island road and bridges is more than N400 billion. The Apapa-Oshodi-Gbagada-Old Toll gate road is more than N70 billion. The Lagos-Okoko-Agbara-Badagry-
The railway between Lagos and Ibadan (under construction) costs $1.5 billion (which is more than N500 billion). We still have the line up to Kano which will cost about $3.4 billion. We have not begun the Port Harcourt to Miaduguri or the Uyo to Lagos. The Itakpe to Ajaokuta is receiving final touches, but the Ajaokuta to Abuja has just been awarded. The coastal rail will pass through many cities till it gets to Lagos. There is a plan to ensure that rail lines link all states in Nigeria. It is a plan, but where will the money come from.
Yet again another is education where from primary to tertiary, we need substantial investments. In a year we should be spending at least N10trillion in education and another N10 trillion on health. We still need more than $30 billion investment in electricity to resolve the problem there. There is still sea and airports to modernize. There is agriculture to modernize and social investments to be undertaken. If we do a budget of N30 trillion with upward adjustments as the years come by, in another ten years we will tell a different story. This is not to say we do not need institutional reforms. Reforms in our public sector are long overdue. We also need private sector improvements.
Example of how poor we are is the budget of New York State education department or what we call ministry here. Their education budget in the state is about $20 billion, compare that to the entire budget of Lagos State which is roughly $2.5 billion or that of Nigeria which is $27 billion. America’s national budget by the way is $4 trillion a year. If you combine all our budgets since 1960, it is not up to $1 trillion let alone $4trillion. America will borrow $1.5 trillion to fund their budget. So let us be kind to ourselves and stop comparing Nigeria to America.
This is why I look forward to the impact of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council recently inaugurated by Mr. President. I recall that in late 2014 or thereabouts, a member of that council and former CBN Governor Chukwuma Soludo in a paper he presented at the time charged the in-coming administration in 2015 to prepare a N30 trillion budget. If that was done then, by now that sum is equal to today’s N50 trillion. So let us see what his advice will now be; because he also understands that N10 trillion is nothing if we truly want to revamp our economy.
We need big thinking all around the country. The challenge however is where do we find the money? Some have mentioned more taxes, more borrowing, more grants, strategic alliance with wealthy countries like China and Japan and of course more patriots in government. Unfortunately we have had the worst form of human beings running our affairs for ages. They steal, kill and destroy. They pocket project funds which have left the entire nation saddled with decay and disorganisation. Unfortunately these corrupt folks are edged on by the poor masses on the basis of mammon or mantra. We need thinkers and doers. It has become more critical at this time. And our population which is a function of our dysfunctional culture is not helping matters either.
I’m sorry; N10.33 trillion-budget is a budget of consolidating the state, not of prospering the citizens. That is why 70 percent of it goes to recurrent. This is even the best percentage we have had in 20 years.
